Strong USD

For the last 3 weeks eur/usd is going down without any real retracement.
I was busy last week - no trading (except small gbp/jpy shorts, but this blog is mainly for eur/usd trades).
We are now around 1.2000 and it will be interesting to see what will happen now. Will it break or bounce?

Going down

After false upside breakout eur/usd is going in only one direction for the past 2 weeks - DOWN. Let's see what will happen at FOMC announcement tomorrow.

Stop-loss hit

Eur/usd stopped @1.2340. Usd/chf stopped @1.2510. So much for this false breakout and new trend. Only good thing is that this positions were very small because I missed the breakout entry and jumped in later. Now we're back in the range.

Sliding lower

Eur/usd still slowly sliding down. On a daily chart it looks like consolidation in an uptrend but I wouldn't like to see price breaking much below 1.2400.

Range day

Price held in a tight range. Nothing changed. Stops still below 1.2350.

Adding positions

Bought eur/usd after bad NFP number @1.2535 and sold usd/chf @1.2307. Stops WAY out of reach - like yesterday.
Mixed reaction after NFP, usd is gaining a little. That's ok, charts are overextended and small correction is needed before another push higher.

Long Eur/Usd

Long eur/usd @1.2497. Short usd/chf @1.2350. Small positions with "catastrophic" stops (just in case) of aprox 180 pips. If situation will change dramatically I'll close before stops will get hit. Now waiting for NFP tomorrow.

ISP problems

I was offline today and missed all the fun. Eur/usd jumped out of the range and crossed 100 day MA. But it stopped just below of the previous high @1.2485. For a confirmed uptrend it must break this level and also 1.2500 which I think is strong psychological level.
Now I'm looking for entry. A small dip would be nice before a new high. And there's NFP tomorrow which is always unpredictable.
Waiting for a dip or a new high to go long.